Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Global Warming Theories.....

Preview A Not so New Theory on Global Warming. The Reason the Last Ice Age May Have Hit the Earth so Much Harder in the Northern Hemisphere Than in the Southern Hemisphere May Have Been Caused by Shift in Earth's Solar Orientation? Lex Loeb Contributor Network . Everyone is an earth climate expert these days. Not me. I can not predict tomorrow's weather with 100% accuracy.. There are days one can look at the satellite weather map and be 100% certain it will be sunny the next day because there the high pressure system is visible and there is no cloud cover coming toward you and if it is it won't be there for 4 days. Weather prediction is much better than it used to be. To see what I am talking about just save the 5 day forecasts as a record and watch how the forecasts evolve to allow for rain coming in when there was no rain in the forecast for the same day the day before in the forecast. We find that that the five day forecasts are really not much good for more than one or two days in advance perhaps 30% of the time. So that maybe they should be reduced to one or two day forecasts to promote accuracy. I may not be a climate expert but I am a preceptive researcher. I grew up living next door the Carnegie Museum in Pittsburgh, PA and spent lots of time there so before I even got to my final years in grade school I was well aware of the long strange geological history of the earth. Those who know what the museum was like back in those days know why I say this. I also learned to use the library card catalog there in the Original Carnegie. The earth's geological history is no stable long term equilibrium based historic or modern day human perceptions of climate because climate change is much more erratic than what most people think they believe it is . 20,000 years ago global mean temperature was about 4 degrees cooler than today. Abrupt cooling occurred around 15,000 years ago and abrupt warming started 11,600 years ago. The abrupt warming 11,600 years ago is not linked to humans, industrial production or automobiles necessarily since human populations were less than 5 million world wide. Forests may have burned on earth but the thesis of global warming only blames the use of so called buried fossil carbon rich fuels including gas, oil and coal. There was no material coal mining till around the year 1600? 1800? or later and no major oil drilling or natural gas exploration until the 20th century. Other strange climate facts are that around 900 ad there is documentation of warming in the northern hemisphere such that the vikings could graze sheep and farm parts of Greenland that are still now under ice. A warming period also corresponds to about 100 bc when sea levels are known to have risen along the Adriatic sea and elsewhere. I am fascinated by the abrupt changes that occurred in warming and cooling with the ice age considering the fact that humans could not be blamed. So I wonder why so many people are willing to believe the Al Goreians about global warming due to green house gas? Sounds more like theology to me because the evidence that atmospheric carbon is necessarily to blame when I can find no evidence that any unnatural carbon would be in the atmosphere in these ancient temperature swings that affected most of the earth. I wanted to know if the onset of major climate change had any warning signs by looking at the onset of the ice and and the end of the ice age. Apparently there is no way humans alive back then, even if they had super computers, could have forecast the end of an ice age or the beginning of another! The reason I come directly to that conclusion is how abrupt the change happened to be. Abrupt means it just suddenly happened. it took months and years for the climate to change and not millennia? How abrupt is abrupt. If it took may 400-1000 years for the ice age to occur it would have still been hard to predict the ultimate extent of the glaciation because there would have been no way to know exactly how long the cooling trend would last. Sudden abrupt changes in global temperature long before humans ever dreamed of a petroleum based economy or the space age just do not agree with the big Al Gore theory. There is something else that makes the big green house gas theory suspect as pure junk science and that is that when the during the last ice age periods , as there was more than one ice age is that the southern Hemisphere now appears to have been warmer when the northern hemisphere was cooler and the polarity would reverse. Another problem is the northern hemisphere seems to have been the main area during the last ice age period where glaciers covered Continental land masses. Most of the continental land mass covered for all periods of the ice age was North America, Canada, Greenland and Northern part of the present USA. Glaciers seem less prevalent in Siberia and Europe and not too much present at all at southern continental latitudes. It may just be that the northern earth axis had shifted to a position over present day northern Hudson bay Canada with the Antarctic still ice covered with the souther earth axis at the edge of Antarctica toward the Indian ocean and not at the center of the Antarctic continent where it is found today. The reason in my thesis that the ice age caused up to 500 ft variance in sea level world wide is because the way the earth polar axis lined up allowed not just one continent, Antarctica, to become covered with glaciers but two. This is because I sheets on the oceans suffer from moderation from warm equatorial water currents and ice on land does not. Ice on water can melt in summer and causes no change in sea level the same way ice in a cup of water can melt and the level of the water in the glass remains the same. The global warming alarmists are telling us constantly that glacier melting on the continents will cause sea level rise not the ice floating on water. What could cause such an abrupt change in climate? The predominant theory is solar cycle activity . My theory is that Volcanic activity or impacts with asteroids or comets might be the actual cause. What would have the potential force to knock the earth off its present axis? in the great Indian Ocean Tsunami that killed 200,000 a few years ago the nearly 9.0 quake actually caused a perceptible wobble in the earth axis. A more powerful higher magnitude quake definite could have caused a lot more oscillation and may even allowed for a sudden shift of the earth's polar axis points? The strike of an asteroid or a comet could also cause an instant realignment or set a momentum drift in motion that might take several years. Colossal volcanic eruptions such as are possible in places like New Zealand, Italy and the Yellow Stone Caldera might also be have enough force considering they can cause a 100 square miles of mountain peaks to disappear from the face of the earth which suggests earth quake activity is possible over 10.0 on the Richter scale. An other discovery is that colossal eruptions can actually occur on two separate sides of the earth at one time and I think that more likely accounts for possible polar axis shift. Not much of human civilization, anywhere will be left standing after such a catastrophic event anywhere on the earth's surface. It is just a crazy theory based on evidence of very swift climate change in abrupt immediate phases not slow transformation periods. The evidence of green house gas warming and present requires some explanation of how it is necessarily man made or partly man made if much more abrupt climate changes occurred in relatively recent geological history. The theory really does not hold much water when going further back in geological history completely alien climates. Periods in earth's climate history were a 100% frozen surface and periods with much warmer global mean temperatures. In forecasting the five day weather forecast or the 100 year weather forecast we might be able to achieve a long term 50% accuracy level maybe? Forecasting global climate several hundred or thousand years from now maybe a 10% probability of accurate forecast? 10,000 or 100,000 years from now a forecast? I would say 0% accuracy because we really don't know enough about geological history to do more than sketch out a rough climate history. Who are the know it all scientists who are telling us that they are 100% or more certain that we are experience global warming because of green house gases? It was was a politician who won the Nobel peace prize for global warming theory and not any scientists yet. Reading that some of the early proponents of global warming theory have now defected from their original conclusions and having done my own research to see how their original experiments worked , it now seems that the theory is all politics and no science. Join me in the future laughing at the dangerous political fad Al Gore won a Nobel peace prize for. That might not mean we might not be experiencing an abrupt ice age or warming trend but if we do it will not be because anyone who predicted green house gas warming will cause global warming predicted these events. I am sure they will take credit in any case. If the climate does not change much in any way they will take credit for saving the earth too. That is why the US mint should issue green house gas global warming coins with two identical sides so Al Gore and friends can flip the coins and always come up with heads . If I were going to design US earth coins I would have the southern hemisphere on one side and the northern on the other side because I think that those odds are fairer. Assuming climate is abrupt beware if our gasoline burning habit is as harmful as we are told it is it may already be too late. This would be true if the abrupt change was completely natural too. Assuming we really let the fossil carbon genie out of the bottle and the global atmosphere can not handle it then we may already be doomed. The natural history record of the ice age tells us that if the cause was initially a carbon overload in the atmosphere that it would have stopped once the abrupt release was over because the evidence says it had to be as abrupt as climate change was. If the climate change only occurred and stayed that way because of carbon molecule overload in the atmosphere it is a definite mystery why it took so long for the carbon to go away and return the earth to its old pre ice age climate? These are very important questions the true believers in green house gas theology do not seem to have adequate answers for to be taken seriously. I have seen their ice core data and it does not support the fact that the center of the north axis pole was sitting directly over northern Hudson bay. The national geographic magazine printed old maps showing the extent of the northern ice age glaciers more long before green house gas theory surfaced as modern day wisdom and you can see how the extent of the ice across North America traces what looks like a polar line that would correspond to a different location of the arctic circle. The green house gas theory does not address the weird fact that the arctic circle does indeed seem to be moved on the planet's surface. I my Nobel prize if I am right and Al Gore turns out to be wrong. Can I have his? .

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