Sunday, July 6, 2014
Why the Greatest Economic Boom in World History is Coming and How it Will Affect You
Why the Greatest Economic Boom in World History is Coming and How it Will Affect You Lex Loeb Contributor Network . The greatest economic boom in world history is inevitable. It is coming and it cannot be stopped. It will be a economic phenomenon that will affect most people around the world as it raises the wealth of the planet to never before seen levels. The signs of this massive economic transformation are already visible. The fretting over the economic/ financial collapse of 2007 -2009 continues to make many people feel a sense of economic helplessness when they should be turning to unbridled optimism. Concerns about the unfair rise of Chinese industry are misplaced and detrimental to one's own economic future. Concerns that international free trade somehow puts the United States at a disadvantage are also detrimental to realizing the inevitable before it is too late to become a direct participant. Bean-counter concerns of "negative" trade and budget deficits resulting in trillions of dollars of unsustainable government debt are concerns that are counter productive in seeing the new economic reality that is emerging. Negative US dollar trade deficits are necessarily future trade and commerce coming to America where dollars have to come back necessarily to be spent by those foreigners holding them. Any Prospect of future inflation puts off shore US dollar funds at risk the longer they are not being utilized in trade. The larger the foreign trade deficits the greater the future trade necessarily has to be unless the foreigners want to eat paper , make something out of it like wall paper or just worship it. If the Chinese cash in their dollars and buy gold remember there are mines all over the world that can get gold out of the ground for less than $500 an once and sell it now in the open markets for $1600 or more. That is a very high profit margin for gold producers who take US dollars from the Chinese, Indians or anyone else in exchange. It suggests that US dollars may even be a better longer term investment if the differential between cost of production and investment grade sales is three times production costs. The dollar may even have an inflation protected return form the issuing US Treasury. That is future commerce. What are the Factors that will necessarily cause this amazing unstoppable world economic boom like no other in history? Here are the factors: 1. That huge over-hanging international trade imbalance with US dollars rolling around in accounts overseas waiting to find something of value for foreign consumers to get in return, if not now then eventually. 2. The largest world number of consumers ever. Suddenly there are not just 300 million Americans that have vast sums of money to spend on consumption but there are 300 going on one billion Chinese joining the ranks of consumers that can spend. Add to this existing 200 million Japanese consumers and 30 million or more between Australia and Canada and then 400 million in Europe and there is vast potential. It gets even more vast once you realize that India is suddenly becoming an even larger industrial consumption market in the world than China is and that levels of wealth will stabilize in both India and China at levels at least as high as countries like Thailand, Taiwan, and South Korea. Wealth levels are not just rising here but quietly a larger middle class is emerging in the middle east, Africa and Russia. We are talking about a new population of well to do international consumers that can number as high as 3 billion if not more that would have formerly been living below what can be called a "poverty line" in their respective countries. Although China and India may grow their own economies to accomplish this it necessarily will also grow economies in the Americas. This does not only include the US and Canada. Mexico and Brazil are rising. Peru and Chile are rising with all the new world commerce and they are also joining the ranks of countries around the world with large middle classes that consume, consume, consume. The United States still remains the largest manufacturer on earth in spite of the rise of china and it will necessarily have to produce for consumers worldwide and not just within the national boundaries. Even if China and India surpass the US because they have so much larger populations it does not mean the demise of American Industries that naturally have the best competitive advantages and more years of experience than any new comers to their industries. Imagine if US output only rises 10 percent as a result of international growth which is much higher. A ten percent rise in productivity can compound over a number of years to benefit the American economy. 3. One of the biggest changes in the economy is the fact that people around the world are gaining never before personal productivity of having a super -computer in their pockets with simple to use relatively inexpensive devices like the i-phone. Never before in history have so many people had access to a super computer this powerful in their pockets. The new phones are linked to giant world wide phone networks, Internet networks and even directly to super computers providing cloud computer services. People have the world time, GPS, language translation services, calculators and huge libraries of information and data at their finger tips. People can do their work without having to waste fuel on a phone or on a home computer without having to travel short or long distance to go to an office or a factory. These kinds of savings and instant access and connectivity lead to higher production potential and personal productivity than ever before. In the business world where time is money this is much more time and much less money for it than ever before and it is on a worldwide basis. It is not on the scale of a few hundred million people participating but on the scale of billions. 4. Technology as new Productivity is lowering costs fast. Forget all the chatter about rising inflation. Productivity is leading to surplus supplies of many things that have long been thought to be very scarce and dear in price. People almost don't know what to make of Natural gas prices falling to unprecedented levels-the lowest market prices in memory. It is a sign of new technology providing almost unimaginable benefits. Fracking and new horizontal energy drilling is seriously raising the possibility that OPEC will soon be put out of business. With New revised reserves of energy resources in the ground just in the continental US and Canada rising to never been seen levels that make the US a larger reserve than Saudi Arabia with out any need for super tanker importation from far away places like Venezuela -The Writing is on the wall. New US oil and gas technology has not even been exported to other places where reserves are also likely to grow to unbelievable new high levels of reserves. Less scarcity of oil and gas means more available for use for a growing hungry world economy. It is fuel for an unprecedented economic boom. Once New US Oil and gas technology reaches Europe , Asia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Latin America world reserves of oil and gas will swell to eye popping levels that will make an even bigger joke out of the peak oil lies of the last decades. Cheap oil and cheap natural gas means cheaper coal and it also means that the so called alternative energies like hydro, solar and wind will not find themselves anywhere near as competitive as before. Post Fukushima / Post nuclear Japan is going to find natural gas does a cheaper job of producing lower emissions electricity. New more passive nuclear plants may prove to be economically viable but might not quickly find that they have any competitive advantages to natural gas. Natural gas will power automobiles around the world. It will power formerly diesel trains and trucks. There could be a 50-300 year plus supply of new natural gas reserves economy coming into place just now. 5. Feasibility of new technology implementation. That super computer in everyone's pocket in the form of an I-phone type instrument is just the start of that revolution. Soon there will be the I-drive from a company like Apple. This will be the exact same phone as the new key to your car. You will just take the phone and plug it into the socket on your car dash board and it will drive your car for you. It will do it safely. That is because it is inevitable that large cell phone networks and not satellite systems will have the most coverage once special road beacons join the network. The cars will have video camera built in to monitor road conditions and the GPS readings will be cross checked by the i-drive units as if the car is driving on a Google map. This kind of automation is inevitable in every part of everyday life. It will happen world wide. You will have the option of driving the car or letting it drive you depending on the level of development of individual roads. Quickly the 40,000 road and highway deaths a year in the US will drop to under 5000 a year. It will be a statistical chart of the commercial airline accident dropping to very low levels ever since human error has been eliminated thanks to computer automation controls in aircraft. Computer power will improve a lot of things where human error once made too many mistakes. Engineering has improved in ways most people could never have imagined and it is just the start. Development of computer driven surgery and in general health care will also change things as never before. Water technology is improving such that since fresh water will float on top of salt water in the oceans it can be bagged and floated by small computer solar powered assisted sails that can float large million gallon bags containing some percentage of air and mostly cool fresh water from northern rivers or glacier melt down in sea caravans to any spot that needs more water on the world coast lines. Millions and millions of bags of water with a million gallons of fresh potable water will arrive in places like San Diego, California cheaper than in continuing to tap the Colorado River. Other technologies that include real geothermal development will be providing electric power at lower prices than natural gas and providing crystallized basalt bricks made of fresh lava that will have greater durability than any existing brick on the markets today. New patents in all fields will reap a huge world wide bounty much of it coming back to the US which will continue leading the world in gaining patents. The greatest boom in world history is just now starting. It may be hard to imagine stock markets heading to level that are ten times what their point values are today but the best is yet to come and it is possible. Everyone now has massive computer power to test new ideas before releasing them in developing new products. As we see cell phones and Internet social web sites helping to create democratic movements around the world we are not seeing what is going on in the productive parts of the economy around the world. It is now possible to go into any store and pay for your goods and services with your cell phone and to scan information off of products with your cell phone. It is possible to tour the world with your cell phone as the ultimate know it all tour guide. It is possible to find the best price and to find the highest producers of excess cash flow from investments the same way. Money is being led to where it is most productive more so than any other time in history . Get ready for a boom as never seen. Get ready to see the Chinese buying up Fifth Avenue in NYC and The Russians coming into Buy up San Francisco bidding up real estate to levels never seen before so much so that buildings need to be built over 100 stories tall to justify the purchases. This is going to be a boom with plenty of bust potential along the way, however it will be a boom with a real substantial wholesale growth in world wide wealth and general wealth here in the USA. If government stays out of the way, the US can grow just like China grows at rates that are almost unimaginable without any inflation pressures because computers can monitor supply and demand in a way that is less hazardous than humans alone can do. We may see the average real annual per capita income grow from $40,000 to something like $200,000 on average at the same time the Chinese and Indians reach an annual net capital income per year of around $18,000. We saw that already happen with US Japanese income parity where the Japanese once surpassed US incomes only to fall in comparison later. It will happen again so long as the US remains the center of the economic free world and so long as we start cutting taxes to allow maximum growth. Maximum growth will lead to more government revenues much faster than higher taxes will. The boom is coming. It will be an international phenomenon with much of the best of everything coming to the USA> .